A CONSIDERATION ON RIGHT TAIL POINT ESTIMATION FOR THE DISTRIBUTIONS
IN HYDROLOGICAL STATISTICS
Authors
廣瀬
H. Hirose
Source
水工学論文集（土木学会）, 44, pp.19-23 (2000.2)
Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, JSCE,
44, pp.19-23 (2000.2)
Abstract
This paper describes an upper tail point estimation
method using the incomplete data by the maximum likelihood estimation
method. In some data cases, it happens to occur that the estimates
for upper tail points such as 100-year return period can be smaller
than the observed maximum annual flood datum, even if the number
of observed data is smaller than 100; this result of analysis cannot
be acceptable from the practioners' viewpoint. Because, adopting
such estimates in hydrologic frequency analysis may cause dangerous
designs and plans for flood prevention. By weighting much to data
in upper tail probability portion, such a phenomenon may be reduced.
Peaks over threshold method (POT) and probability weighted moment
method (PWM) are included in such weighting methods. This paper
deals with a weighting method by using incomplete data. An example
for St. Mary's River data shows the superior points in such a treatment.