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Infectious Disease Spread
Analysis Using Stochastic Differential Equations for SIR Model
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Yoshihiro Maki, Hideo Hirose
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the 4th International Conference on Intelligent
Systems, Modelling and Simulation (ISMS 2013), pp.152-156, January
29-31, 2013, Bangkok, Thailand
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| Pandemic
simulation is considered to be crucial as a scenario simulation
and it is performed by many kinds of methods; the classical ordinary
differential models (SIR model), agent-based models, internet-based
models, and etc are among them. The SIR model is one of the fundamental
methods to see the behavior of the pandemic with easy computation.
However, there are no stochastic variation in the equations. The
stochastic differential equations (SDE) can provide such kind of
variations. Although the SDE are applied to many fields such as
economics, less attention has been paid to the SIR simulations.
In this paper, we propose a SDE version of the SIR simulation model
with application to SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) case
in 2003 in Hong Kong. |
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| SIR;
stochastic differential equation; pandemic; SARS; |
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Times Cited in Web of Science: 1
Times Cited in Google Scholar:
Cited in Books:
Inspec:
WoS: MATHEMATICAL PROBLEMS IN ENGINEERING 記事番号: 608315
発行: 2014
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