the
increase of the number of failures of equipments, it is crucial
to predict the final number of infected patients or failures at
earlier stages. To estimate the number of infected patients, the
SIR model, the ordinary differential equation model, statistical
truncated model are useful.
The predicted value for the final number of patients using data until
time $T$ becomes a function (trend) of $T$. This is called L-plot.
We here consider the use of the L-plot to predict the final number
of patients,
and we defined the decay function using the L-plot.
Applying the multiple methodologies to the same data, we could expect
the better predicted values.
This is called the PoP, the prediction on predictions.
As one of the PoP method, we propose to use the ensemble method.
By applying these methods to the SARS case,
we have found that the ensemble method works well as a PoP method. |
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SIR model, ordinary differential equation model, statistical
truncated model, ensemble method
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