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The pandemic simulations by the MS model: the
combination of the MAS and the SEIR models
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Hideo Hirose, Yuki Toyosaka
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"8th Hawaii International Conference
on Statistics, Mathematics and Related Fields", January
13-15, 2009, the Hilton Hawaiian Village Beach Resort & Spa
in Honolulu
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There are mainly two kinds of methods for pandemic simulations:
one is the SEIR model and the other is the MAS model. The SEIR
model can deal with simulations quickly for homogeneous populations
with simultaneous ordinary differential equations and a few parameters;
however, it lacks the versatility in its use. The MAS model can
deal with detailed simulations under the many kinds of initial
and boundary conditions with standard social network models; however,
the computing cost is high. In this paper, we consider a method
to combine these two models such that we use the MAS model in the
early stage in a pandemic simulation to determine the appropriate
parameters that can be used in the SEIR model, and then we use
the SEIR model in the subsequent stage with parameters obtained
in the early stage. Using this model, we have a possibility to
deal with pandemic simulations for the real social structure with
less computing cost.
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SIR
model, SEIR model, network model, pandemic simulation, terrorism,
Runge-Kutta method.
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@
Times Cited in Web of Science:
Cited in Books:
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