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An Avian Influenza Mathematical
Model
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Supri bin Amir, Hideo Hirose
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The 2nd BMIRC International Symposium on
Frontiers in Computational Systems Biology and Bioengineering,
January 29 - 30, 2013, Fukuoka, Japan.
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Epidemiology
is a study of the spread of a disease by looking at how it is distributed
in the population and factors affecting the spread. Before an infectious
disease becomes an epidemic, studies need to be carried out to
understand how the spread occurs so that it can be contained.
Avian influenza is an infection caused by avian (bird) influenza
(flu) A viruses. These influenza A viruses occur naturally among
birds. Wild birds worldwide get flu A infections in their intestines,
but usually do not get sick from flu infections. However, avian influenza
is very contagious among birds and some of these viruses can make
certain domesticated bird species, including chickens, ducks, and
turkeys, very sick and kill them.
During an outbreak of avian influenza among poultry, there is a possible
risk of infection for people who have contact with infected birds
or surfaces that have been contaminated with secretions or excretions
from infected birds. Studies have shown that direct contact with
diseased poultry was the source of infection and found no evidence
of person to person spread of the virus.
Mathematical modeling is a powerful tool that can be used to analyze
and explain the spread of infectious. In the case of avian influenza,
deterministic models were used for comparing interventions aimed
at preventing and controlling influenza pandemics and stochastic
models were proposed to model and predict the world wide spread of
pandemic influenza.
In this paper, we present mathematical model deals with the dynamics
of human infection by avian influenza both in birds and in humans.
Stability analysis is carried out and the behavior of the disease
is illustrated by simulation with different parameters values. This
study also will be determined on qualitative analysis of the model
of the spread of avian influenza to obtain the basic reproduction
number is presented for a general compartmental disease transmission
model base on a system of ordinary differential equations. |
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Times Cited in Web of Science:
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